Archive: March, 2011

Be pro-active in all facets of your investment or trading life.

Two names here. I’m long both names. PSTR I have a good sized long-term position. VOG I have a small sized trading position. click on chart below to enlarge

The sentiment geeks are always switching between different indicators of bullish and bearish sentiment in an effort to gauge whether the market is close to a top or a bottom. If it’s not the AAII survey, it’s Market Vane or Investor’s Intelligence. Maybe it’s the COT numbers that tickle the fancy of some traders? The [...]

On the morning of March 23rd, I posted a blog update citing the reasons why I was short-term bullish. The chart below cites the reasons why I remain bullish and believe that the upside target for the QQQ could be above 58. click on chart below to enlarge

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The short-term trading portion of our portfolio has been somewhat active lately. More active than taking on anything in our long-term portfolio, for sure. I think it’s a good time to go over some short-term trading rules that use to keep me out of trouble. Next time you wonder why I pass on certain trades [...]

Sold N @ 28.97 – 29 Break even trade. Hasn’t moved as I expected over the past few days. Original trade here: http://www.zenpenny.com/?p=1237

Bought VOG @ 4.50 – 4.55. Reviewed on “The Gun” last night. http://www.zenpenny.com/?p=1292

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The Howard Weil Energy Conference will going on this week in New Orleans. It started today and continues through Thursday. Lots of micro-cap, small-cap and mid-cap energy companies will be presenting. Easy to figure that the general consensus will be one of excitement and bullish future expectations. Whether these expectations are fulfilled is yet to [...]

There are a million different ways to lose money in the financial markets. What catches most market participant’s off-guard is the counter-intuitive nature of trading and investing. It’s an issue that is best summed up by Jefferson Airplane in the song White Rabbit: When logic and proportion Have fallen sloppy dead And the White Knight [...]

1. 3 REASONS TO BE SHORT-TERM BULLISH 2. THE GUN: YOKU AND N ARE LOOKING RIPE FOR TOMORROW 3. PSTR: WHAT NEXT?

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The stock is up nearly 20% with more than 2 hours left until the close. I did mention two days ago that it looked ready for blastoff when it was holding near support, with volume increasing and the daily ranges narrowing. The chart below has further details: click on chart to enlarge

These facts leave me bullish over the next few days.

A technical update on PSTR. If you aren’t familiar, PSTR is a long-term investment position that was recently taken in the portfolios. The research report is available to all by clicking here. click on chart below to enlarge:

click on the charts below to enlarge:

Have taken a medium sized trading position in N at 28.85 – 28.90. Details here.

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My car didn’t kill that bird, indecisiveness did.

- Have done nothing with any of “The Gun” trades. Reason being that the volume just isn’t there to justify a long position. Doesn’t mean that a trade will fail when a trigger is hit on light volume. It just means that the chances of success are not as great. – Strange market today. A [...]

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click on the charts below to enlarge:

Almost exactly one month ago, I described the 4 phases of a bull market cycle.  My reason for writing the article was to warn market participants of the impending disaster that tends to strike right around the time a certain class of investor (termed “phase 4″ investors) becomes involved in the financial markets. Since the [...]

1. THE MOST READ BLOG POSTING IN THE SHORT HISTORY OF ZENPENNY 2. VISIONS OF NATURAL GAS INVESTMENTS DANCING THROUGH MY HEAD 3. TODAY’S THOUGHTS

They have seen the future potential of natural gas and with good reason.

Looks like we’re in the process of completing our first leg down of this correction phase. I’ll be going over a bunch of charts this coming weekend. For tonight, however, I want our focus to be on one. The chart we’re looking at tonight is the QQQQ. Correction phases are tricky affairs. It makes sense [...]

The markets are one of the few places where you are penalized for working hard.

I hope that some of the phase 4 investors heeded the warning and took profits.

This article also appears on thestreet.com and fidelity.com websites. Every decade has an investment theme. A sector or group of investments that you look back at wondering how you could have missed something so blatantly obvious? This is followed by the ritual calculations of the type of wealth you would have been able to accumulate [...]

Took a 2.60 point profit on OVTI short at 29.71. All out. Original trade here: http://www.zenpenny.com/?p=1034

“Today’s Thoughts” is a nightly email sent to Zenpenny “Fire” level members outlining different thoughts regarding the markets and our positions. At times, I will post a copy of the email to our site for blog readers. Here is tonight’s edition: I think it’s important to speak tonight of what is going in the overseas [...]

Trading opportunities across all sector remain sparse. The risk/reward equation that we search for in order to enter trades simply doesn’t exist with all the chop we have seen recently. Ranges are expanding. Risk is increasing. We’ll wait it out. Still in OVTI short, of course.

Whenever the market situation sends confusing, mixed signals, I like to go weekly. By going weekly, I mean zooming out on things a bit and looking at the price action from a weekly basis. When I started reviewing the charts this weekend, I noticed a ton of crosscurrents. The weekly view will hopefully help clarify [...]

This article also featured on TheStreet.com The battle with yourself is never-ending. The more you become involved in activities that tend to press your emotional weak spots, the more you will experience inner-turmoil as you are delving into an area of the psyche that is uncomfortable being in the spotlight. Activities that involve speculation of [...]

1. RESEARCH REPORT – NEW POSITION – 7 PAGES 2. 3 CHARTS FROM A WEEKLY PERSPECTIVE 3. THE LAST BASTION OF HOPE FOR THE NASDAQ IS BREACHED

To quote Hyman Roth in the Godfather 2, “this is the business we’ve chosen.” As such, you’re gonna have losing weeks. I lost money this week. I know a lot of other people did too. It was a rough week, no doubt. Over the past 16 years of having bad weeks, good weeks, followed by [...]

What is it about the Phase 4 types that makes them LILO? Yeah, LILO. That’s “last in, last out”. They always love to pile into the networking names and they are always reluctant to sell them until the markets have broken down completely and totally. Remember 2000? Phase 4 types were bidding up networking names [...]

Adding to PSTR at 5.05 – 5.15. Research on the company here. This is a long-term investment for us…I am happy to be adding at these prices.

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There is a lot more to be learned from defeat than there is winning.

Whenever I am investigating a company for investment, amongst the many items I look into are which newsletters, investors or institutions are recommending or investing in the stock.

Why be bullish? Here are the top 3 reasons:

Our first Bakken play is up over 300% since we bought it in 2010. We expect something similar here.

Zenpenny PSTR Research Report 3-7-11

This is a nice looking setup here as the risk profile is very well defined

Oil and gold are the hot sectors at present. A lot of speculative oil and gold names happen to trade on the AMEX.

Tomorrow morning, you will all get a glimpse into what Zenpenny members get on a regular basis: Research, opportunity and the potential for substantial profits. I will be posting our newest positions research report on the blog for the first time tomorrow morning. The company is a wonderful opportunity for investment, with a proven veteran [...]

1. 10 REASONS A SUPER-CYCLE IN OIL IS INEVITABLE. 2. THE ATTACK OF THE SPECULATIVE OIL ZOMBIES 3. THE GUN – A POSSIBLE TRADING TRIGGER ABOUT TO GO BANG

Going to be releasing the research report on the newest addition to the portfolio on Monday morning. It is an oil/gas name…undervalued, activist/restructuring angle, with significant estimated upside. Looking forward to finishing up the research this weekend and presenting it to everyone on Monday. The research will be available to all Zenpenny members.

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It is important in your dealings with the financial markets (especially if you are a more active participant) to approach the markets from different perspectives than most people would. You can’t just simply look at the financial world as an all powerful, omnipotent entity that knows the collective thinking of all participants, at all times. [...]

I do have room for one more allocation into OVTI should it decide to move higher from our initial entry point. This is a short to intermediate term trading position for the portfolios.

Starting a short position in OVTI at 32.27-32.30. Reasons outlined in video last week http://www.zenpenny.com/?p=974

They have all come out of their coffins and seem to be invading any AMEX listed company with a market cap under $50 million. I’ll admit my confusion here. I am leaning towards this meaning that oil and oil stocks need some rest. Things are looking a tad bit overly speculative here. Here are 8 [...]

I try to put these out as often as possible for Fire Level members and once a week for Water level members. Tonight’s video detailed a significant breakout in our subprime, restructuring play. I have been telling members for weeks that the consolidation was picture perfect, with the likely next move to be on the [...]

Article also featured on thestreet.com and Minyanville The argument has been made that the super-spike we saw in oil prices into 2008 was a simple aberration. It was seen as the type of cyclical event that takes place once a decade amongst different asset classes. As we are all slaves to the benefits of crude [...]

Today’s Thoughts is a nightly article sent to “Fire” level members of Zenpenny. I am posting it on the blog tonight, as I do once in awhile. Sometimes it feels like you’re working on a million things and it becomes difficult to compartmentalize everything in your seemingly inadequate mind. For example, I have been wanting [...]

- It seems that the Phase 4 investor stampede, signaled an intermediate term top to this market almost perfectly. – Today’s downdraft seems ominous. Lots of important support points being taken out just as the markets were attempting a crucial recovery. So begins our correction phase. Choppy, with a downward bias ahead. – Oil/gas stocks [...]