A complete revamping of the portfolio took place today. I exited all short positions mostly in the pre-open and then the remainder of SPXU was done shortly after the open. The equity markets are an enigma to me currently. There is massive pessimism and massive weight in terms of poor fundamentals. Over the past couple [...]
Added TMV at 22.77. More on this tonight. Short long-bond position/long yields.
Sold last of the SPXU. All out. 1225 is way more than I expected. My thesis was off…to say the least. Currently holding DZZ, EUO and large cash position.
Risk assessment Wednesday is here. On Monday, I said that I would wait until today to make a decision as to which way I would allocate the portfolio based on price action. I’ve decided to take down my short exposure. Continue to hold onto half of my SPXU position for the time being. I have [...]
Today I was the punk and I got beat down. Not a pleasant day in the least bit. Comes with the territory, however. Needless to say, my recent assessment of the markets was off. It doesn’t mean that one should be jumping to the bull side, thinking that we have put in a solid bottom. [...]
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The only thing that changed with Friday’s smash reversal to the upside was the near term prospects for continued upside volatility. This market isn’t for the meek or emotionally fragile investor. I see a majority of financial bloggers out there who are so zoomed in short-term price movements I wonder how they make it past [...]
In the article I posted just a bit ago entitled “What is Obvious is Now Obviously Right? You Bet” I failed to answer the question of whether the S&P is headed to 1200 or 1250 as a lot of traders seem to be waiting for. My answer is: NO. I believe the high of the [...]
On August 11th, I asked 7 “what if?” questions. The answers are become a little more clear. Let’s revisit: What if the rally we experienced since the 2009 lows was simply a standard retracement of the initial leg down within a multi-year bear market? It is beginning to look more and more like this is [...]
My observation of aspiring bears and fearful bulls is that a lot of investors seem to be waiting for the S&P to move to 1200 or possibly 1250 before initiating short positions or liquidating longs. There is this square minded, vanilla perception that since the markets have fallen at such a substantial pace that they [...]
As we go into September, there are two major events on agenda…actually, three major events
Doubled up my position in SPXU right off the bat here. 20.20 entry roughly.
You gotta zoom out. This is an environment where you need perspective. I see the disease of myopia everywhere I look. Look at the big picture. That’s where the money is going to be made. The banks. They are an absolute disaster. The markets WILL NOT bottom without financials getting their act together. We are [...]
I’m looking to add to my inverse ETF family no later than mid-day Thursday. More than likely I will be adding a good amount tomorrow. I don’t feel that the current strength lasts more than a few trading days at most. We’ll be through the August lows within the next week or two. September and [...]
It’s the mental plague of modern day society.
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The equity markets have a very simple and accurate means of judging panic and fear.
The bell is ringing for the gold and silver bulls. It doesn’t mean that a top is due tomorrow at 11am. However, we are getting close to a point where both technical and fundamental factors may begin exerting their influence over gold and silver prices. Not to the upside, either. Let’s look at gold and [...]
Analysis of the price action and some of the trends taking place within the markets leads me to believe we have another 6-10 percent on the downside left for the S&P, Dow and Nasdaq Composite. I don’t see a sustainable bounce taking place before the 6-10 percent threshold is met. With the ferocity that this [...]
Abnormal has become the new normal. Statistical anomaly has become statistical probability.
It doesn’t give sellers a chance to get in at anything resembling advantageous pricing.
Real quick: The fact that the market refused to get up to the 1230-1240 level is a sure fire sign that too many individuals were looking to short up there and it didn’t wanna make itself into a cheap trick. It also means that it had every intention of falling and wanted to do so [...]
Offset by the EDZ and FAZ. Nevertheless, disappointing trade. 3 point loss. Out at 21.50ish.
Below you will find the chart describing the reasons for my long position in TMV from a technical perspective. I said in my post from this morning that I was expecting some of the upward pressure on the long bond to subside in the coming days and weeks. This is due to my opinion that [...]
Bought TMV – 3X Inverse ETF on the 30 year Treasury. Took a position around 24.40. Given my strong opinion about the sideways nature of trading for the remainder of August, I expect that some of the upward pressure on the long bond (downward pressure on yields) will subside. 30 year yield (TYX) is sitting [...]
We’re washed out for the remainder of the August. Too many traders and investors have caught onto the bear side of the equation. It’s gonna take some sideways chop, with a bullish slant, to shake loose some of the bearish convictions. This is a market where attitudes and emotions seem to flip on a dime. [...]
I further continued my routine of liquidating long positions into today’s strength. Furthermore, I added FAZ to my growing family of inverse leveraged ETFs. I still have my eye on adding more FAZ and possibly adding some SDS to the mix to round it out. I already have some EDZ from late last week. We [...]
The story this week is in the long-term charts for most market averages. That’s where I am looking this week. That’s where the real story of the market is told presently. I could dissect the daily charts, but I think they are generally useless given the volatility we have faced. Investors need to zoom out [...]
I will be providing updates from time to time as to the general portfolio structure. I have been increasing my allocation to cash over the past couple of weeks. I am now up to 50% cash. I have recently taken a position in EDZ. I have a couple more inverse ETFs that I would like [...]
The following is a list of 2X and 3X leveraged inverse ETFs that have a good deal of risk, but may prove to be extremely profitable over the next 1-2 months should the downtrend in the markets continue. They also provide a adequate hedge against long exposure without having to dedicate a substantial amount of [...]
I wouldn’t be asking such questions if the market wasn’t worrying right along with me
This is an angry market. It feels angry. It looks ugly. It wants heads. It wants hearts. It feels like a market that has trapped a lot of traders, fund managers and individual investors. The foot of the market has been implanted firmly on the neck of an entire group of bulls and it seems [...]
It will be just as wise to fade the insiders in August of 2011.
This article also featured on Forbes Today I’m astounded. Not by the price action of the past seven days. Not by the percentage losses I am seeing in some of the popular momentum plays I follow. But rather by the nonchalant, “this too will pass” attitude I am seeing from a wide variety of investors. [...]
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There are a chorus of individuals, strategists and money managers who are telling a story of last night’s downgrade of US debt being the capitulation type event that will lead us to a sustainable bottom. Any of you who have been following my thoughts and opinions for more than a week know that I will [...]
There are only two things you need to be concerned with as an investor currently
The most relevant aspect of the study I posted to the blog on Sunday may have been overlooked amidst all of the numbers I posted prior. I want to highlight it here as the market seems to be going down this path almost exactly. Here’s the bread and butter of the study and what has [...]
Nothing will sum it up how widespread the damage has been like an illustration via charts. The following is a long list of a wide range of leveraged ETFs covering everything from Treasury Bonds to Europe. What should be paid attention to in the following charts is the power and conviction with which this move [...]
Learn to walk away. It’s such an important aspect of investing in the markets. And, unfortunately, few realize the importance enough to take this exercise in discipline seriously. The markets are one place where doing too much work can get you in trouble. “When you try hard then you die hard” to quote Kanye West. [...]
