Two new holdings
Uncharacteristically cautious as the markets sit at multi-year highs.
A detailed look at the companies I bought into this week.
PXLW and WMIH are the two largest positions in the portfolio. ATNY and SPNS round out the foursome.I’m roughly 75% invested, with the remaining 25% in cash. I would like to find an area to allocate those funds to over the next several days. I will update via Twitter and on this forum once I do.
As most of you know, the largest position in the portfolios AUTH was bought out by AAPL today for a 60% plus premium from Thursday’s close and a 73% premium from my reentry price on July 15th. The original research on AUTH from May 8th is here
SPRT has too much beta in its pants to hold onto during uncertain market times. It has become a nice trading stock. I initiated it, for a second time, at 2.60. I rode it up from the 2.60 range into the 3 range for a profit. I may pursue it again if it moves back down around 2.50-2.60. Have to see which way the cookie crumbles.
Back in AUTH for second round of profits.
The largest position in the portfolios has been liquidated.
A buy and a sell today.
In the pre-market, bought back FAS at 12.90. Put 10% of the portfolio to work here. I’ll probably keep that size. Financials look to be at a point where the willingness to lead the second leg of the rally is becoming a very real possibility. I went over some of the individual banking names last [...]
I developed the concept of risk assessment Wednesday to keep me from myself. When I say “keep me from myself”, I mean all of the negative traits that I possess as a trader and investor. I have a tendency to become emotional, greedy and over-confident in my analysis at times. Risk assessment Wednesday keeps me [...]
- I took profits on my short Euro/long Dollar position EUO at around 19.10. I initiated EUO on 8-29-11 at a price of 16.55. – I added to my position in TMV around 15 I currently hold DZZ, TMV and good ol’ American cash.
As an investor, one of the most crucial elements in order to achieve the success you desire is to be 100%, unequivocally and without boundaries truthful with yourself. I have been doing this for some 17 years now, with a great deal of success as well as a great deal of setbacks along the path. [...]
A news driven trampoline of economic indecency and the prelude to a steady European diet of fiscally whorish behavior that would make Ron Jeremy blush. A break of the August lows would be my buy trigger on the downside. I’m looking for 1080 on the S&P 500 as an extremely favorable risk/reward entry. If I [...]
On the 3rd trading day of each week, I like to assess the risk in the portfolio to see what positions have the chance to cause the most harm going forward. Today was risk assessment Thursday. It came and went without any action, whatsoever. I’m holding a macro portfolio currently. I feel that this will [...]
Stocks: Neutral. There are reliable sentiment indicators that began flashing near record amounts of bearish sentiment with respect to the equity markets last week. During Friday’s decline, the put/call closed above 1.40 as we are nearing the August lows. This type of sentiment picture doesn’t allow for a break of the August lows unless a [...]
I get the sense that the market needs to eat more bears before the August lows are broken. I made the contention a couple weeks back that we are at a point where the deception mechanism in the markets is effectively broken. During one-way, maniacal bull or bear moves (think gold currently or the bear [...]
A complete revamping of the portfolio took place today. I exited all short positions mostly in the pre-open and then the remainder of SPXU was done shortly after the open. The equity markets are an enigma to me currently. There is massive pessimism and massive weight in terms of poor fundamentals. Over the past couple [...]
Risk assessment Wednesday is here. On Monday, I said that I would wait until today to make a decision as to which way I would allocate the portfolio based on price action. I’ve decided to take down my short exposure. Continue to hold onto half of my SPXU position for the time being. I have [...]
Today I was the punk and I got beat down. Not a pleasant day in the least bit. Comes with the territory, however. Needless to say, my recent assessment of the markets was off. It doesn’t mean that one should be jumping to the bull side, thinking that we have put in a solid bottom. [...]
I’m looking to add to my inverse ETF family no later than mid-day Thursday. More than likely I will be adding a good amount tomorrow. I don’t feel that the current strength lasts more than a few trading days at most. We’ll be through the August lows within the next week or two. September and [...]
Below you will find the chart describing the reasons for my long position in TMV from a technical perspective. I said in my post from this morning that I was expecting some of the upward pressure on the long bond to subside in the coming days and weeks. This is due to my opinion that [...]
Bought TMV – 3X Inverse ETF on the 30 year Treasury. Took a position around 24.40. Given my strong opinion about the sideways nature of trading for the remainder of August, I expect that some of the upward pressure on the long bond (downward pressure on yields) will subside. 30 year yield (TYX) is sitting [...]
I further continued my routine of liquidating long positions into today’s strength. Furthermore, I added FAZ to my growing family of inverse leveraged ETFs. I still have my eye on adding more FAZ and possibly adding some SDS to the mix to round it out. I already have some EDZ from late last week. We [...]
I will be providing updates from time to time as to the general portfolio structure. I have been increasing my allocation to cash over the past couple of weeks. I am now up to 50% cash. I have recently taken a position in EDZ. I have a couple more inverse ETFs that I would like [...]
We are currently long 4 positions in our long-term portfolio and 1 position in the short-term trading portfolio. I have made public one of our long-term positions with the release of its research report some weeks ago. Our short-term trading position I have been involved with for about a week. The remainder of our positions [...]
The stock is up nearly 20% with more than 2 hours left until the close. I did mention two days ago that it looked ready for blastoff when it was holding near support, with volume increasing and the daily ranges narrowing. The chart below has further details: click on chart to enlarge
A technical update on PSTR. If you aren’t familiar, PSTR is a long-term investment position that was recently taken in the portfolios. The research report is available to all by clicking here. click on chart below to enlarge:
- Have done nothing with any of “The Gun” trades. Reason being that the volume just isn’t there to justify a long position. Doesn’t mean that a trade will fail when a trigger is hit on light volume. It just means that the chances of success are not as great. – Strange market today. A [...]
Going to be releasing the research report on the newest addition to the portfolio on Monday morning. It is an oil/gas name…undervalued, activist/restructuring angle, with significant estimated upside. Looking forward to finishing up the research this weekend and presenting it to everyone on Monday. The research will be available to all Zenpenny members.
I try to put these out as often as possible for Fire Level members and once a week for Water level members. Tonight’s video detailed a significant breakout in our subprime, restructuring play. I have been telling members for weeks that the consolidation was picture perfect, with the likely next move to be on the [...]
Article also featured on thestreet.com and Minyanville The argument has been made that the super-spike we saw in oil prices into 2008 was a simple aberration. It was seen as the type of cyclical event that takes place once a decade amongst different asset classes. As we are all slaves to the benefits of crude [...]
Today’s Thoughts is a nightly article sent to “Fire” level members of Zenpenny. I am posting it on the blog tonight, as I do once in awhile. Sometimes it feels like you’re working on a million things and it becomes difficult to compartmentalize everything in your seemingly inadequate mind. For example, I have been wanting [...]
- It seems that the Phase 4 investor stampede, signaled an intermediate term top to this market almost perfectly. – Today’s downdraft seems ominous. Lots of important support points being taken out just as the markets were attempting a crucial recovery. So begins our correction phase. Choppy, with a downward bias ahead. – Oil/gas stocks [...]
The Bakken Formation is an oil reserve that occupies parts of North Dakota and Montana. It is one of those things that everybody knows about, yet nobody really knows about. It’s very well known inside of the oil/gas community, yet for the most part undiscovered amongst your average investor class. I’m assuming this is because [...]
“Today’s Thoughts” is a nightly email that is sent to ZP Fire level members. Once in a great while I get a wild hair up my ass and decide to post them on the blog. Here you go: An important article to read on the blog tonight about core strategies versus periphery strategies http://www.zenpenny.com/?p=943 If [...]
As any of you who have been reading this blog for longer than a fortnight know, I am an advocate of having a core strategy that allows you stay in peace, while giving you the maximum potential for profit possible. For some of you that strategy may involve trading 40 times a day, taking multiple [...]
Any test of a trader or investor’s portfolio does not come when the market is going up day after day, similar to what we have been witnessing recently. It comes when the market drops. That is when you know if you simply have a portfolio that is either a high or low beta version of [...]
If our current portfolio was an entertainer, we would have been booed off stage and asked never to come back. Not because the performance was terrible, but rather due to the fact that the performance has been boring. We have seen our investment portfolio more or less meander sideways for the first month and a [...]
It’s all about the losses. I know, I’m not telling you anything new. Everybody realizes that the financial markets are all about controlling your losses, yet 90% of people who do this lose money. It’s one thing to know and another to be able to implement what you know. Just as with anything else in [...]
Last night, I sent out a flow chart to members going over a good ol’ boy network that is operating in our largest holding. Good ol’ boy networks. You know, when a group of well-heeled gentlemen put together a business with the sole purpose of enriching their network of people. It’s typically a closed door [...]
It’s a trader or investors nature to complain regardless of how good things are going. This is a game where you could always do better. It can become maddening at a certain point, if you get too critical regarding your every move. It’s so important to keep your mental state stable whether you do this [...]
(Some of the prices that appear below are pre-reverse split prices) We initiated our position in LASR during the first quarter of 2010 at 2.55 per share. It is trading close to $12 as of 1-28-11. We have been scaling out of the position throughout January. The following is the research, reasons and facts that [...]
This is now considered a completed investment. We initiated the position almost exactly one year ago, when most thought the end result would be the shareholder equity in the company being dissolved in the bankruptcy. We have been in the process of liquidating for the past few weeks after a 400% gain in the stock [...]
Never underestimate the power of round numbers on market averages and individual stocks. This is lesson I forgot coming into this week, as I wasn’t expecting the type of upmove we have seen here recently. Round numbers act as a flashing billboard…it’s the single best advertisement for the markets there is. It serves as means [...]
So we’re taking more of our technology bankruptcy (now well out of bankruptcy) play off the board here. It’s moved down to a small – mid sized position. Not because I am bearish on the company at all…but rather it has become too large for us as our niche is companies trading under $50 million [...]
Given that we’re in the midst of researching a potential new stock for investment, I thought now would be a good time to detail some of the thought process. As any of you who read this site in detail know, our stock investments come in the form of special situations. Special situations, for those of [...]
Had a nice push on our oil/gas spinoff play, with it ending the day up 5%. Volume was light, however. Our technology restructuring play, biotech restructuring play and subprime restructuring play were more or less unchanged. Yawn. Sideways was only fun when it was made into a film. Glad its the weekend. Tennis, gym, friends, [...]
Option expiration Friday’s used to be fun. Actually, they still are fun once in a great while. However, the fever with which it used to whip traders into a frenzy is for the most part gone. A function I think of institutions having a better handle on it than individual investors, who have become a [...]
I just sent our members some new research on our oil/gas spinoff. It was a comparison of the market caps of companies that are drilling in the same region relative to the market cap of our oil/gas holding. It made my head spin with excitement. I admit, I drank some coffee tonight before I started [...]
It just gets brighter and brighter for our oil/gas spinoff, which is already up 350% since we initiated the position in October of 2010. I love talking stocks…and I love sharing picks. I’ve been doing it since the late-90′s after I left my job as an institutional trader for Bank of America Investments. I am [...]
Thus far into 2011, our portfolio has been flat. I’m not necessarily disappointed, as our two largest holdings were both up in excess of 300% in 2010. I expected there to be some selling during the first quarter of the year, until these names resume their uptrend, which I expect they will in a big [...]
Our technology reorg bankruptcy play hitting a new 52 week high today. About as pretty a pattern as one could have in a portfolio position. Very little day to day volatility. An absolutely stunning upward trending channel, with very little deviation. Still a double from here to make up for the unnecessary misery that was [...]