During a bullish Twitter rant on Wednesday afternoon, I stated that the “pinning” action of the Dow Jones Industrial Average to the yellow generational trajectory had bullish ramifications into next week. I was expecting the pinning to continue, with the markets closing at the high end of my estimated range of 12,550 and 12,850 for the week. Little did I know at that time that I would be humbled at the feet of a fireball emanating from the anus of a monster that can only be described as half dragon and half bear.
I will give a full detailed illustration of the technical ramifications, based on trajectory points, during my weekend review. However, I will say that there are two things in particular that have perked up the seasoned antennae that lie on my head:
1. There was an acceleration that took place today off of the generational trajectory in yellow. It was also a rather substantial expansion in the normal daily range. That is not something you want to see occur off a generational trajectory. More often than not it is a precursor to more weakness over the intermediate term.
2. Crude oil is using what should be generational support, via an extremely significant generational trajectory, as resistance instead of support. It has now accelerated off of what was supposed to be support in a very heavy and determined manner. In recent memory, a crude oil market that stinks has generally equaled an equity market that stinks, as it ushers in emerging market worries.
The one positive I did see came from the VIX. It closed right at the trajectory from the 2008 highs. A further acceleration to the upside off of that trajectory will become another negative event for the market. Tomorrow will be then be important.
I am not at all happy about this singeing of hairs in my nether region. Especially given the fact that I recently took my positioning up to 75% long. Although I am flat for the month performance wise, I have never been a fan of getting whipsawed as it wreaks havoc on mental equilibrium, requiring extra hours in the gym with a ferocious scowl on my face in order to balance myself mentally. I hope it doesn’t come to that point, but I am fully prepared for appropriate action if need be.
Individual portfolio names held up relatively well with the exception of one SYNC. I believe that SYNC is making a second counterfeit move below its primary trajectory. This will be outlined over the weekend. What I don’t want to see is a low volume drift down in SYNC tomorrow. I would rather see high volume along with some rapid price movement. This will indicate that there are shorts actively pursuing the stock while long positions are abandoned. This is a name that has heavy retail involvement, which makes it prone to exaggerations of the soap opera type, with full on knife violence, tears and mysterious Latin American characters appearing from dark corners.
I will be posting lots of data this weekend to illustrate everything discussed here tonight.
Stay flexible. None of us are here to get married, just to make money.